Romanian economic forecast April 2026
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Business news
S&P confirmed Romania’s rating at “BBB minus”, with a negative perspective.
According to the S&P rating agency, despite the slowdown in the economy’s growth rate and the effects of the Middle East war on fuel prices, the government coalition in Bucharest will make progress towards implementing the planned fiscal measures to bring the overall budget deficit to 5.5% of GDP in 2027, compared to 9.4% of GDP in 2024.
“Although the parties that make up the governing coalition disagree on some specific measures, the harshest fiscal measures, including the increase in value-added tax (VAT) and the freeze on pensions and public sector salaries, are already in force. We now expect Romania’s economy to face near stagnation in 2026, as fiscal consolidation, eroding real wages and rising energy prices put pressure on private consumption,” says S&P.
Romania to have half the economic growth forecast, according to IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has halved its forecast for Romania’s economic growth this year, also worsening its estimates for inflation and unemployment.
Romania’s economy is now expected to grow by 0.7% in 2026, compared to a 1.4% advance estimated in the fall, according to the latest IMF report on world economic prospects.
The growth rate is expected to equal that of 2025 (data announced by the Romanian Statistical Institute last week indicate a real advance of 0.7% for the Romanian economy last year, after a 0.9% increase in 2024).
However, Romania entered a technical recession in the second half of the year, with two consecutive quarters of decline.
The IMF expects the Romanian economy to rebound strongly in 2027, growing by 2.5% annually.
Regarding consumer prices, the IMF expects average inflation in Romania to be 7.8% this year, up from the 6.7% estimated in its October report. Average annual inflation is expected to slow to 3.9% in 2027.
On the labor market, the unemployment rate is expected to be 6% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from the previously estimated 5.8%.
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RON / EUR ex-rate evolution
30.12.2020: 4.8744
31.01.2021: 4.9486
31.12.2022: 4.9458
31.12.2023: 4.9753
31.12.2024: 4.9764
31.12.2025: 5.0963
31.01.2026: 5.0957
28.02.2016: 5.0955
31.03.2026: 5.0989
Inflation rate evolution
2020: 2.63 %
2021: 5.05 %
2022: 13.80 %
2023: 10.40 %
2024: 5.59 %
2025: 7.33 %
Jan. 2026 / Jan. 2025: 9.62 %
Feb. 2026 / Feb. 2025: 9.31 %
Mar. 2026 / Mar. 2025: 9.87 %
Key indicators
– VAT: 21%
– Profit tax: 16% x profit
– Microenterprise tax: 1% x revenues
– Dividend tax: 16% x distributed div.
– Minimum gross salary: 4,050 RON (e.g. cca 800 EUR)
– Total salary taxes: cca 43% in addition to the net salary
– Local tax on buildings:
– residential: 0.08% – 0.2%
– business: 0.2% – 1.3%