Romania could adopt EURO in 2028

BRD Societe Generale chief economist Florian Libocor: “Romania could adopt EURO in 2028”

The year 2019 may be the last of the economic growth in the current economic cycle, and in 2028 we could adopt the single currency, BRD Societe Generale chief economist Florian Libocor said at the annual conference organized by the Association of Financial Analysts in Romania, mentioning that he speaks personally, according to Agerpres.

“The year 2019 may be the last year of the growth phase of the current economic cycle, and I must point out that it is a possible prudent balance scenario.” It is not a perfect scenario, it is criticized, it is amenable and it is very possible that it does not take place. It is the last year of growth, followed by few years of contraction, with the statement that the transition from the boom to the contraction phase will not be as aggressive as it was at the last crossing, when I jumped from +7 % to -7% economic contraction, so here we will discuss one – two percentage points. And then only in 2023 – 2024 – 2025 we will come to a full extent, so to say, in a new phase of economic growth and rebuilding as long as we accumulate and we will not adopt pro-cyclical policies of equilibrium, and somewhere in 2028 we take into account that, as I said, cautiously and balanced Romania could adopt the euro, “said Florian Libocor.

According to him, the case of Bulgaria shows that the decision to adopt the single currency is not eminently economic, but rather eminently political. We also have the case of Montenegro, a country that is not in the EU but uses the single currency.

Florian Libocor said that, in terms of real convergence, the per capita GDP ratio shows that Romania gained 9 percentage points between 2013 and 2017, from 54% to 63%, while Bulgaria gained only 3 points. Romania is at 63% of the EU average and has an ambitious plan to reach 70% of the EU average.

 

Contact us for more details